← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 73% | 59% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 29% | 6.00 | value: +73% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 10% | 13% | 10.60 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Rio Ave FC +1.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Orkun Kökçü · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 58' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Florentino Luís · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 64' | ⚽ | Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Demir Ege Tıknaz · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Kerem Aktürkoğlu · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 135.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1558.98 | 1867.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.28 | 12.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 2.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 2.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.00 |
| squad age | 23.52 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 3.17 |