← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 79% | 79% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.22 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 8% | 8% | 14.31 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora +2 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +2 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 39% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand