← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 48% | 44% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| AVS win | 23% | 25% | 4.38 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| CD Nacional −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 43% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Baptiste Roux · AVS |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Costa · CD Nacional |
| 34' | ⚽ | Dudu · CD Nacional |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Ribeiro · AVS |
| 45' | ⚽ | Djibril Soumaré · CD Nacional |
| 70' | 🟨 | Djibril Soumaré · CD Nacional |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lucas Piazón · AVS |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · AVS |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yair Mena · AVS |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 568.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1408.45 | 1490.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.97 | 12.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.41 | 28.44 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.01 |