← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 08:45 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio De Almeida Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 50% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.63 | value: +11% |
| FC Porto win | 24% | 23% | 4.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Porto −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 62% | 1.86 | value: +15% |
| Under | 48% | 38% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Álvaro Carreras · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 19' | 🟨 | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 30' | ⚽ | Álvaro Carreras · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 44' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fábio Vieira · FC Porto |
| 52' | 🟨 | Martim Fernandes · FC Porto |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Nehuén Pérez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 79' | 🟨 | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Ángel Di María · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 84' | 🟨 | Orkun Kökçü · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Borges · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 70.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1877.97 | 1897.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.02 | 7.80 |
| eye test v1 | 1.95 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.11 | 3.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 2.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | 0.85 |
| solidity v1 | 1.65 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 24.63 |
| state index | 1.96 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.57 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.53 |