← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Melo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 75% | 76% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 6.85 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 11% | 10% | 10.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −1.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC Arouca −1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 72% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 28% | 3.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Ángel Di María · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 28' | 🟨 | Francisco Montero · FC Arouca |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Orkun Kökçü · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 36' | 🟨 | Florentino Luís · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 42' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 46' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ángel Di María · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 59' | 🟨 | David Simão · FC Arouca |
| 77' | ⚽ | Casper Tengstedt · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 681.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1887.61 | 1623.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.10 | 25.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 76.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 26.34 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.63 |