← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 1, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 67% | 72% | 1.44 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.81 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 12% | 10% | 8.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Portimonense +1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 64% | 1.68 | value: +7% |
| Under | 43% | 36% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 30' | ⚽ | Roger Fernandes · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 38' | 🟨 | Victor Gómez · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 49' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 69' | ⚽ | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 71' | ⚽ | Hildeberto Pereira · Portimonense |
| 86' | ⚽ | Taichi Fukui · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1521.00 | 1339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1431.70 | 1774.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.12 | -4.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 23.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 16.96 | 16.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.07 | 26.42 |
| state index | -0.91 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.18 |