← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 14, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 53% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 22% | 23% | 4.55 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| FC Porto −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 62% | 1.66 | value: +4% |
| Under | 42% | 38% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
| 25' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 66' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 79' | 🟨 | Paulo Oliveira · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 82' | 🟨 | Álvaro Djaló · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 2418.00 | 1261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1912.05 | 1786.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.00 | 3.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 2.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 8.99 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | 1.71 |
| solidity v1 | 1.53 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 27.67 |
| state index | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 2.09 |