← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 1, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 38% | 37% | 2.51 | fair |
| Chaves win | 33% | 33% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Chaves +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 44% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Ygor Nogueira · Chaves |
| 12' | ⚽ | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 15' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 21' | 🟨 | Diogo Santos Nascimento · Vizela |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 37' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kelechi Nwakali · Chaves |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jô Batista · Chaves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pedro Ortiz · Vizela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Samu · Vizela |
| 89' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| Paulo Victor · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟥 | Bruno Wilson · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 91.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1479.76 | 1496.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.24 | -2.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 20.21 | 20.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.29 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.19 |