← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 78% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.62 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 8% | 7% | 13.12 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.75 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Portimonense −1.75 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 69% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 31% | 3.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 42' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Costa · Portimonense |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Mutassim Al-Musrati · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 58' | 🟨 | Álvaro Djaló · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 59' | ⚽ | Álvaro Djaló · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alemão · Portimonense |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 87' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 1190.00 | 1372.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1742.25 | 1457.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.84 | 33.60 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.25 | — |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.13 |