← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Sep 29, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 51% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.81 | fair |
| FC Porto win | 23% | 26% | 4.27 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Porto −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟥 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
| 34' | 🟨 | David Carmo · FC Porto |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 59' | 🟨 | João Neves · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ángel Di María · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 77' | 🟨 | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 | Zé Pedro · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Jurásek · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 🟨 |
| Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 455.00 | 2311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1898.17 | 1948.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.15 | -2.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.49 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 5.09 | 5.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.69 | 1.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 26.52 |
| state index | 1.77 | 1.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 1.83 |