← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 24, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 63% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.82 | value: +21% |
| Boavista win | 16% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Boavista −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 65% | 1.59 | value: +3% |
| Under | 40% | 35% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 26' | ⚽ | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
| 30' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 30' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 30' | 🟥 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 37' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Mutassim Al-Musrati · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1149.00 | 662.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1766.56 | 1595.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.32 | 46.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.11 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 25.84 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.73 |