← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 62% | 58% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.61 | value: +18% |
| Chaves win | 16% | 17% | 5.98 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Chaves +1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 62% | 1.73 | value: +8% |
| Under | 44% | 38% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Sikou Niakaté · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 3' | 🟨 | Pedro Pinho · Chaves |
| 16' | ⚽ | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 43' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 53' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 67' | 🟨 | Leandro Sanca · Chaves |
| 80' | 🟥 | Ygor Nogueira · Chaves |
| 81' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| ⚽ |
| Pizzi · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 49.00 | 1113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1519.83 | 1748.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.14 | -21.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.91 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | — | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.68 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.64 |