← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, May 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 76% | 84% | 1.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 10% | 6.35 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 8% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 71% | 1.53 | value: +9% |
| Under | 38% | 29% | 2.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 15' | 🟨 | Paulo Oliveira · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Matheus Babi · CD Santa Clara |
| 21' | 🟨 | Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 35' | ⚽ | Sikou Niakaté · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ygor Nogueira · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | ⚽ | Abel Ruíz · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ricardinho · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Matheus Babi · CD Santa Clara |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sikou Niakaté · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 85' | ⚽ |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 87' | ⚽ | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 88' | 🟨 | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rildo · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1016.00 |
| 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1764.32 | 1425.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.36 | -11.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.64 |
| league points | 71.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 24.90 |
| state index | 1.04 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |