← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 69% | 75% | 1.38 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.98 | fair |
| Chaves win | 10% | 9% | 9.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Chaves +1.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.81 | value: +8% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 15' | ⚽ | Danny Namaso · FC Porto |
| 27' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 28' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Chaves |
| 43' | ⚽ | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 48' | 🟨 | Danny Namaso · FC Porto |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bruno Langa · Chaves |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jô Batista · Chaves |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jô Batista · Chaves |
| 73' | 🟥 | Jô Batista · Chaves |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 9 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| 83' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Chaves |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 85' | 🟨 | João Mendes · Chaves |
| 87' | 🟨 | João Mendes · Chaves |
| 87' | 🟥 | João Mendes · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zaidu Sanusi · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 761.00 |
| 2102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1501.46 | 1902.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.00 | -2.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.81 |
| league points | 26.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.88 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |