← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, Sep 30, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 49% | 60% | 2.00 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.72 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 25% | 16% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Porto −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 66% | 1.86 | value: +23% |
| Under | 48% | 34% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Iuri Medeiros · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 29' | 🟨 | David Carmo · FC Porto |
| 32' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 34' | ⚽ | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 38' | 🟨 | Fabiano Souza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 55' | ⚽ (og) | Pepê · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 63' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 74' | 🟨 | Diogo Costa · FC Porto |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 🟥 |
| Matheus · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1947.00 | 790.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1922.13 | 1782.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.45 | 36.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 1.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.87 |
| league points | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 13.14 | 12.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 2.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 26.40 |
| state index | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |