← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Sep 18, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 68% | 77% | 1.42 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 20% | 9% | 5.22 | fair |
| Vizela win | 12% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Vizela −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.41 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Raphael Guzzo · Vizela |
| 11' | 🟨 | André Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 13' | 🟨 | Anderson · Vizela |
| 24' | 🟨 | Uroš Račić · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 71' | 🟨 | Carlos Isaac · Vizela |
| 72' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 83' | ⚽ | Vitinha · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 88' | 🟨 | Milutin Osmajić · Vizela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Álvaro Djaló · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matheus · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Diego Lainez · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.60 |
| coach days | 778.00 | 1175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 4.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1779.39 | 1478.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.27 | -12.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.73 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 42.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| league points | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 25.75 |
| state index | 1.63 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |