← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 43% | 50% | 2.27 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 28% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.16 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Yan Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Rafael Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kevin Mirallas · Moreirense FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rafael Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mateus Pasinato · Moreirense FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Neto Borges · CD Tondela |
| 74' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Manu · CD Tondela |
| 84' | 🟨 | Matías Lacava · CD Tondela |
| 88' | 🟨 | Godfried Frimpong |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcelo Alves · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 166.00 |
| 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1480.07 | 1436.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.86 | 14.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.45 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |