← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 22, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 37% | 40% | 2.69 | value: +6% |
| CD Tondela win | 34% | 31% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CD Tondela +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Richard Ofori · Vizela |
| 12' | ⚽ | Salvador Agra · CD Tondela |
| 16' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Vizela |
| 31' | 🟨 | Samu · Vizela |
| 39' | 🟨 | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pedro Silva · Vizela |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nuno Moreira · Vizela |
| 53' | 🟨 | Koffi Kouao · Vizela |
| 65' | 🟨 | Kiko Bondoso · Vizela |
| 69' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| Daniel dos Anjos · CD Tondela |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tiago Dantas · CD Tondela |
| 72' | ⚽ | Raphael Guzzo · Vizela |
| 77' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 87' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Barbosa · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 508.00 | 936.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1440.03 | 1482.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.92 | -22.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.60 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| league points | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |