← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 45% | 47% | 2.19 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.29 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 25% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Pedro Pelágio · Maritimo |
| 11' | 🟨 | Léo · Maritimo |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 16' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 19' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 30' | 🟨 | Iker Undabarrena · CD Tondela |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 47' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 59' | 🟨 | Pedro Trigueira · CD Tondela |
| 61' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 🟨 |
| Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Matheus Costa · Maritimo |
| 75' | ⚽ | Matheus Costa · Maritimo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tiago Almeida · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Xadas · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ali Alipour · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pedro Augusto · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 432.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1445.77 | 1457.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.34 | -14.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 8.78 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |