← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 23, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 73% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.21 | value: +6% |
| CD Tondela win | 8% | 10% | 13.00 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela +1.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| FC Porto +1.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 43% | 2.43 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Neto Borges · CD Tondela |
| 11' | 🟨 | Modibo Sagnan · CD Tondela |
| 14' | 🟨 | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 19' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 23' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 28' | 🟥 | Iker Undabarrena · CD Tondela |
| 43' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 73' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 79' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 3 | Shots | 24 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 417.00 | 1605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1462.35 | 1880.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 20.10 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.53 |
| state index | -0.18 | 1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |