← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 3, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 70% | 68% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.31 | value: +8% |
| Boavista win | 11% | 11% | 8.96 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Boavista −1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 12' | ⚽ | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 25' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 49' | 🟨 | Mutassim Al-Musrati · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jackson Porozo · Boavista |
| 89' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenji Gorré · Boavista |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 428.00 | 428.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1676.68 | 1530.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.63 | 7.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 5.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 22.46 | 23.82 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |