← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 22, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 35% | 40% | 2.77 | value: +10% |
| CD Tondela win | 34% | 29% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CD Tondela +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Willyan Rocha · Portimonense |
| 11' | 🟨 | Daniel dos Anjos · CD Tondela |
| 17' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 35' | ⚽ | Beto · Portimonense |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 48' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 80' | ⚽ | Fali Candé · Portimonense |
| 87' | 🟨 | Samuel · Portimonense |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 🟨 |
| Telmo Arcanjo · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 355.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 1.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1475.31 | 1499.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.35 | -13.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |