← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Aug 20, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 57% | 61% | 1.72 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 18% | 17% | 5.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Moreirense FC +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Rúben Ramos Ismael · Moreirense FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 41' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 53' | 🟨 | Artur Jorge · Moreirense FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Paulo Oliveira · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Paulinho Mota · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Derik Lacerda · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 231.00 | 384.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1554.80 | 1674.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.29 | -0.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 5.03 | 6.03 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.46 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |