← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Iancu Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 38% | 44% | 2.59 | value: +15% |
| CD Tondela win | 32% | 28% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| CD Tondela +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mario González · CD Tondela |
| 10' | ⚽ | Mario González · CD Tondela |
| 12' | ⚽ | Mario González · CD Tondela |
| 20' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Abdu Conté · Moreirense FC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Rafael Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 61' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 62' | 🟨 | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 78' | 🟨 | David Simão · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 81' | 🟨 | Yohan Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Soares · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 106.00 |
| 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1559.51 | 1467.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.49 | -2.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 34.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |