← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 26, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Draw | 37% | 32% | 2.62 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 34% | 31% | 2.89 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 29% | 37% | 3.32 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CD Tondela +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Moreirense FC +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 39% | 2.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Fr |