← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Tue, Jul 14, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 36% | 43% | 2.74 | value: +19% |
| CD Tondela win | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| CD Tondela +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 37% | 2.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Rúben Ribeiro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Edwin Banguera · Gil Vicente FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 57' | ⚽ | Rúben Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Bozhidar Kraev · Gil Vicente FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ygor Nogueira · Gil Vicente FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Yohan Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pepelu · CD Tondela |
| 84' | ⚽ | Philipe Sampaio · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 🟨 |
| Ricardo Valente · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 379.00 | 379.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1493.99 | 1454.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.11 | -31.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 39.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 4.19 | 5.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 24.83 |
| state index | 0.27 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |