← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Wed, Jun 24, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 35% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +8% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 34% | 35% | 2.85 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 31% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| CD Tondela +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 59% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 41% | 2.97 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
| 45' | ⚽ | Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
| 63' | 🟨 | Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Yohan Tavares · Pacos Ferreira |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 82' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jorge Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Toro · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Denilson · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 🟨 |
| Pepelu · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 359.00 | 754.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1482.56 | 1477.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.34 | 32.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 26.12 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |