← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 58% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.02 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 18% | 22% | 5.50 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Maritimo +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +8% |
| Under | 49% | 44% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Francisco Trincão · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 20' | 🟨 | Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Franck Bambock · Maritimo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jorge Correa · Maritimo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| ⚽ |
| Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 121.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1503.48 | 1742.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.75 | -15.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 24.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 2.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 25.83 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |