← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Mon, Sep 23, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 73% | 73% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.70 | value: +8% |
| Maritimo win | 9% | 8% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Maritimo −1.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 45% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Franck Bambock · Maritimo |
| 30' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Daizen Maeda · Maritimo |
| 33' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 40' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 57' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 63' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 70' | ⚽ | Franck Bambock · Maritimo |
| 78' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 80' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 80' |
| 🟥 |
| Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Amir Abedzadeh · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 22.00 | 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1673.19 | 1469.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.40 | -26.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 8.13 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.88 | — |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |