← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Aug 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 43% | 43% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.36 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Pepelu · CD Tondela |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Denilson · CD Tondela |
| 65' | 🟨 | Cláudio Ramos · CD Tondela |
| 66' | ⚽ | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 70' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Yohan Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 75' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Maritimo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fahd Moufi · CD Tondela |
| 83' | 🟨 | Charles · Maritimo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Leandro Barrera · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| Pité · CD Tondela |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Richard · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 297.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1488.25 | 1458.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.02 | -0.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.82 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |