← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 46% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
| Chaves win | 27% | 27% | 3.61 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Icaro · CD Tondela |
| 8' | ⚽ | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 11' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 28' | ⚽ | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
| 38' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
| 39' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gastón Campi · Chaves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Cláudio Ramos · CD Tondela |
| 70' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bruno Gallo · Chaves |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 29 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 1265.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1451.78 | 1488.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.62 | 8.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |