← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 51% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
| Boavista win | 22% | 21% | 4.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 22' | ⚽ | Nwankwo Obiora · Boavista |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rafael Costa · Boavista |
| 40' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 43' | ⚽ | Mateus · Boavista |
| 48' | 🟨 | Bruno Viana · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 49' | ⚽ | Alberto Bueno · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Cardoso · Boavista |
| 81' | 🟨 | — · Boavista |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rafael Bracali · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 25 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 23 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 130.00 |
| 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1525.79 | 1694.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.10 | -29.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| league points | 38.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |