← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 71% | 76% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.04 | fair |
| Feirense win | 9% | 11% | 10.24 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | ⚽ | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 73' | 🟨 | Claudemir · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 76' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1145.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1379.32 | 1738.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.78 | -6.43 |
| eye test v1 | -1.39 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| league points | 15.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 25.87 |
| state index | -1.79 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |