← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 38% | 30% | 2.57 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 34% | 41% | 2.91 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jádson · Portimonense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Hackman · Portimonense |
| 45' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 55' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ricardo Ferreira · Portimonense |
| 63' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 72' | ⚽ | Pité · CD Tondela |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 1224.00 | 250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1456.29 | 1485.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.82 | -6.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 9.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |