← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 52% | 54% | 1.87 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 24% | 21% | 4.02 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ (og) | Júlio César · Portimonense |
| 28' | ⚽ | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 33' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 55' | ⚽ | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 58' | ⚽ | Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 64' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · CD Nacional |
| 71' | 🟨 | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fernando Tissone · CD Nacional |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 87' | 🟨 | Bruno Reis · Portimonense |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 89' | 🟥 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 221.00 | 617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1485.02 | 1430.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.86 | 12.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.48 |
| league points | 28.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |