← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 52% | 46% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.89 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 23% | 32% | 4.28 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 92.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1531.14 | 1715.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.60 | -53.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 28.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |