← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 42% | 33% | 2.34 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 29% | 38% | 3.34 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Daniel · CD Nacional |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 35' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 36' | ⚽ | Brayan Riascos · CD Nacional |
| 61' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 62' | ⚽ | Fernando Tissone · CD Nacional |
| 66' | ⚽ | Fahd Moufi · CD Tondela |
| 79' | 🟨 | João Pedro · CD Tondela |
| 83' | ⚽ | Vítor Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pité · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 609.00 | 1187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1421.14 | 1469.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.86 | -18.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| league points | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |