← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 70% | 75% | 1.39 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.93 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 11% | 8% | 9.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Kikas · Belenenses |
| 60' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 71' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · Belenenses |
| 72' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 78' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 113.00 | 692.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1740.45 | 1527.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.93 | -34.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| league points | 49.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |