← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 48% | 42% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.66 | value: +14% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 26% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Murilo Freitas · Rio Ave FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 55' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wellington Carvalho · Portimonense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 73' | 🟥 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 31 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 192.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1510.87 | 1543.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.47 | 1.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |