← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 54% | 49% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.74 | value: +36% |
| Aves win | 20% | 15% | 4.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 33' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 33' | 🟨 | Marcelo Goiano · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 39' | 🟨 | Luquinhas · Aves |
| 50' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 60' | ⚽ | Marcelo Goiano · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 66' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 83' | 🟨 | Bruno Viana · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 397.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1446.72 | 1763.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.33 | 10.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 2.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |