← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Chaves win | 19% | 19% | 4.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Vítor Tormena · Portimonense |
| 38' | ⚽ | Costinha · Chaves |
| 42' | 🟨 | António Filipe · Chaves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Chaves |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gastón Campi · Chaves |
| 73' | 🟨 | Erdem Şen · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lionn · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 181.00 | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1533.24 | 1471.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.45 | -11.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.60 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 27.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |