← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 74% | 77% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.49 | fair |
| Boavista win | 8% | 7% | 11.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 29' | 🟨 | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 33' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 42' | 🟨 | Matheus Indio · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 57' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Cardoso · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Cardoso · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gonçalo Cardoso · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 4.80 |
| coach days | 66.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -7.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1756.38 | 1513.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.10 | 4.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 46.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 33.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 1.20 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |