← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 36% | 31% | 2.70 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 34% | 42% | 2.91 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 42' | 🟨 | João Carlos · Portimonense |
| 43' | ⚽ | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jorge Correa · Maritimo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Josip Vuković · Maritimo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Wilson Manafá · Portimonense |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 76' | 🟨 | Leandro Barrera · Maritimo |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jorge Correa · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulinho · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 65.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1483.25 | 1535.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.40 | 56.73 |
| eye test v1 | -1.46 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 68.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 26.24 |
| state index | -1.11 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |