← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 64% | 67% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.69 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 15% | 13% | 6.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Rúben Dias · Portimonense |
| 22' | 🟨 | Franco Cervi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Jardel · Portimonense |
| 63' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 72' | 🟥 | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 154.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1495.27 | 1883.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.72 | 22.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.10 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.19 |
| state index | 0.22 | 1.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |