← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.32 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 22% | 25% | 4.44 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Xavier · CD Tondela |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 16' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 43' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 45' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 47' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 55' | 🟨 | Xavier · CD Tondela |
| 62' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 64' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
| 85' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 85' | 🟥 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Ferreira · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 123.00 | 1097.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1464.96 | 1477.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.72 | -3.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -2.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |