← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 69% | 60% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.95 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 11% | 21% | 8.76 | value: +85% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 11' | 🟨 | Mohamed Abarhoun · Moreirense FC |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 25' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 50' | 🟨 | Alan Schons · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 30.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1746.17 | 1486.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.60 | 47.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| league points | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 1.88 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |