← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 38% | 34% | 2.55 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 35% | 40% | 2.80 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Ewerton · Portimonense |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 482.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1390.76 | 1468.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.63 | 15.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 19.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |