← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 51% | 59% | 1.93 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 22% | 18% | 4.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Belenenses |
| 27' | ⚽ | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 68' | 🟨 | Muriel · Belenenses |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 78' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matija Ljujic · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 547.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1496.80 | 1742.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.63 | 21.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |