← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 54% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.78 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 20% | 25% | 4.95 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |