← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 47% | 54% | 2.13 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 31% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
| Boavista win | 23% | 24% | 4.40 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Danilo Barbosa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 26' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 27' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 41' | 🟨 | Robson · Boavista |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kuca · Boavista |
| 59' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 59' | 🟥 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 65' | 🟨 | Matheus · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rochinha · Boavista |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 78' | 🟨 | Robson · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟥 | Robson · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Vagner · Boavista |
| 79' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 88' | ⚽ | André Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 124.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1557.68 | 1678.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.72 | 2.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.83 | 24.53 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |